What happens the year after a record corn yield year?
February 16, 2006 13(2):15
Joe Lauer, Corn Agronomist
The final USDA state corn yield for 2005 is 148 bu/A, a new record. Corn farmers
in Wisconsin have had 25 record corn yields since 1866 (Table 1). What happens the
year following a record year? On average, grain yield decreases 6% the year following
a record year. In only two cases were records set two years in a row (1948-49 and
1965-66). There have been three cases where a tie occurred (1942-43, 1981-82, and
1986-87). For 19 of 24 records years, corn yield decreased up to 33% the following
year. The range in percent change from a record year to the next is 49% (-33 to
16%). On average, it will take another six years before a new corn production record
will be set for the state.
Table 1. USDA corn yield (bu/A) record years in Wisconsin since 1866 and yield
the following year.
|
Record Year
|
|
Next Year
|
Year
|
Yield
|
Percent Change
from previous record
|
|
Year
|
Yield
|
Percent Change
after record year
|
1867
|
38
|
32
|
|
1868
|
36
|
-4
|
1870
|
38
|
1
|
|
1871
|
37
|
-3
|
1900
|
39
|
2
|
|
1901
|
26
|
-33
|
1921
|
39
|
1
|
|
1922
|
37
|
-6
|
1925
|
40
|
3
|
|
1926
|
32
|
-20
|
1940
|
42
|
5
|
|
1941
|
41
|
-2
|
1942
|
46
|
10
|
|
1943
|
46
|
0
|
1946
|
47
|
1
|
|
1947
|
45
|
-4
|
1948
|
48
|
3
|
|
1949
|
55
|
15
|
1949
|
55
|
15
|
|
1950
|
48
|
-13
|
1952
|
64
|
16
|
|
1953
|
62
|
-4
|
1956
|
68
|
6
|
|
1957
|
64
|
-6
|
1959
|
71
|
4
|
|
1960
|
63
|
-12
|
1961
|
73
|
3
|
|
1962
|
70
|
-4
|
1965
|
76
|
4
|
|
1966
|
88
|
16
|
1966
|
88
|
16
|
|
1967
|
83
|
-6
|
1968
|
95
|
8
|
|
1969
|
88
|
-7
|
1971
|
98
|
3
|
|
1972
|
95
|
-3
|
1977
|
104
|
6
|
|
1978
|
98
|
-6
|
1981
|
108
|
4
|
|
1982
|
108
|
0
|
1986
|
118
|
9
|
|
1987
|
118
|
0
|
1991
|
119
|
1
|
|
1992
|
104
|
-13
|
1994
|
141
|
18
|
|
1995
|
114
|
-19
|
1999
|
143
|
1
|
|
2000
|
132
|
-8
|
2005
|
148
|
3
|
|
---
|
---
|
---
|
|
|
|
|
Average
|
|
-6
|